Someone always turns up to an activity on the days listed in always_days,
and on any other day of the week they turn up independently with probability
p. Days are numbered 0 to 6 and each is equally likely a priori.
You are told only that they attended. Return the probability the day was
target.
Bayes with a uniform prior, so the answer is just that day's attendance probability over the sum across all seven days.
Input
always_days = [1, 3]
p = 0.2
target = 1
Output
0.33333333333333326