Two bus companies serve one route. A company A bus is late with probability
p_late_a, a company B bus with probability p_late_b. You watched a late bus
and, from that, you believe with probability posterior_a that it was company A.
Return the ratio of A buses to B buses in the population that would justify that belief.
This is Bayes run backwards: you have the posterior and the likelihoods, and you want the prior. Solve
for the fraction of A buses, then return .
Input
p_late_a = 0.5
p_late_b = 0.1
posterior_a = 0.5
Output
0.20000000000000004